Winners and Losers
Who are the likely winners and losers in the fallout from this deal?
Xen? Probably a winner.
Novell? Doubtless if Microsoft gave you a few hundred million dollars and promised to help you sell your Linux distro, you'd manage to take advantage of the windfall. Whether Novell management is smart enough to do the same, I don't know.
Red Hat? Red Hat was definitely in the crosshairs in both the Oracle thing and the Microsoft-Novell deal. Analysts were already wondering about Red Hat's future after the Oracle move, pointing out the obvious fact that Red Hat doesn't own any IP, but just sells support. Um, yeah, that's a pretty standard open-source business model. And Red Hat has a better reputation for support than Oracle. As for the Microsoft-Novell deal, it may have, by contrast, helped Red Hat's image. Red Hat's stock went down after these developments, but it may come out a winner in the long run. As for Red Hat General Counsel Mark Webbink's assertion that, in a year's time, Red Hat will be the only Linux distro standing, that seems a little rash.
The GPL? The fact that Java has been released under the GPL gives a lot of cred to GPLv2. But GPLv3, eh, not so much. Even before the deal, GPLv3 was getting resistance from both Linux developers and Linus Torvalds, who fear that it could lead to the Balkanization of Open Source. The Microsoft-Novell deal potentially increases this risk. A long deep breath may be called for.
Mono? Opinions about Mono's future are all over the map. I've read arguments that being legitimized on only one platform is the kiss of death and that other distros will rip it out. I've also seen it argued that the deal eliminates any lingering concerns about Mono drawing legal fire. And InfoWorld throws this curve: Mono just got killed, but it was by the open sourcing of Java. Mono only got launched, the argument goes, because of licensing difficulties with Java.
UNIX? Eric Bangeman of Ars Technica says if there is a big loser here, it's UNIX.
Linux? It seems fair to say that both the Oracle move and the Microsoft-Novell deal increase the legitimacy of Linux. If it can avoid code forking and GPL forking and any nefarious plot Microsoft may hatch, it should continue to gain adherents.
Microsoft? Microsoft always wins.
One last tin-foil-hat thought: If Microsoft is out to destroy Linux, who would and could stand up to Microsoft? Perhaps only IBM. Could this all be leading up to an epic struggle between IBM and Microsoft?
